PCPM

PCPM means Probabilistic Critical Path Method. It is based on decades of research and development after completing my Ph.D. in Management Science and Information Systems. The title of my thesis was “Time, Cost and Performance Tradeoffs in Project Management”.

PCPM deals with time and cost in a probabilistic way, also allowing probabilistic crashing and resource management. The breakthrough came when I discovered how to calculate the shape parameters of beta distributed activity duration times based on minimum, most likely and maximum duration times. These equations allow the simulation of the project (and milestones) duration times, and consider not only the range parameters, but also the mean and variance. Without these equations it would be impossible to come up with a way to compare the performance of PCPM and even PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique), because we would not know what to expect for the probabilistic behavior of the project duration time. The probability for each activity to be critical can also be calculated. PCPM considers cost in a probabilistic way, and allows probabilistic activity crashing.